Decreased buffering capacity and increased recovery time for legacy phosphorus in a typical watershed in eastern China between 1960 and 2010

Legacy phosphorus (P) accumulated in watersheds from excessive historical P inputs is recognized as an important component of water pollution control and sustainable P management in watersheds worldwide. However, little is known about how watershed P buffering capacity responds to legacy P pressures over time and how long it takes for riverine P concentrations to recover to a target level, especially in developing countries. This study examined long-term (1960–2010) accumulated legacy P stock, P buffering capacity and riverine TP flux dynamics to predict riverine P-reduction recovery times in the Yongan watershed of eastern China. Due to a growing legacy P stock coupled with changes in land use and climate, estimated short- and long-term buffering metrics (i.e., watershed ability to retain current year and historically accumulated surplus P, respectively) decreased by 65% and 36%, respectively, resulting in a 15-fold increase of riverine P flux between 1980 and 2010. An empirical model incorporating accumulated legacy P stock and annual precipitation was developed (R2 = 0.99) and used to estimate a critical legacy P stock of 22.2 ton P km−2 (95% CI 19.4–25.3 ton P km−2) that would prevent exceedance of a target riverine TP concentration of 0.05 mg P L−1. Using an exponential decay model, the recovery time for depleting the estimated legacy P stock in 2010 (29.3 ton P km−2) to the critical level (22.2 ton P km−2) via riverine flux was 456 years (95% CI 353–560 years), 159 years (95% CI 57–262 years) and 318 years (95% CI 238–400 years) under scenarios of a 4% reduction in annual P inputs, total cessation of P inputs, and 4% reduction of annual P inputs with a 10% increase in average annual precipitation, respectively. Given the lower P buffering capacity and lengthening recovery time, strategies to reduce P inputs and utilize soil legacy P for crop production are necessary to effectively control riverine P pollution and conserve global rock P resources. A long-term perspective that incorporates both contemporary and historical information is required for developing sustainable P management strategies to optimize both agronomic and environmental benefits at the watershed scale

A modified load apportionment model for identifying point and diffuse source nutrient inputs to rivers from stream monitoring data

Determining point (PS) and diffuse source (DS) nutrient inputs to rivers is essential for assessing and developing mitigation strategies to reduce excessive nutrient loads that induce eutrophication. However, application of watershed mechanistic models to assess nutrient inputs is limited by large data requirements and intensive model calibration efforts. Simple export coefficient models and statistical models also require extensive primary watershed attribute information and further they cannot address seasonal patterns of nutrient delivery. In practice, monitoring efforts to identify all PSs within a watershed are very difficult due to time and economic limitations. To overcome these issues, based on the fundamental hydrological differences between PS and DS pollution, a modified load apportionment model (LAM) was developed relating the river nutrient load to nutrient inputs from PS, DS and upstream inflow sources while adjusting for in-stream nutrient retention processes. Estimates of PS and DS inputs can be easily achieved through Bayesian calibration of the five model parameters from commonly available stream monitoring data. It considers in-stream nutrient retention processes, temporal changes of PS and DS inputs, and nutrient contributions from upstream inflow waters, as well as the uncertainty associated with load estimations. The efficacy of this modified LAM was demonstrated for total nitrogen (TN) source apportionment using a 6-year record of monthly water quality data for the ChangLe River in eastern China. Aimed at attaining the targeted river TN concentration (2mgL-1), required input load reductions for PS, DS and upstream inflow were estimated. This modified LAM is applicable for both district-based and catchment-based water quality management strategies with limited data requirements, providing a simple, effective and economical tool for apportioning PS and DS nutrient inputs to rivers. © 2013 Elsevier B.V

Factors controlling phosphorus export from agricultural/forest and residential systems to rivers in eastern China, 1980–2011

This study quantified long-term response of riverine total phosphorus (TP) export to changes in land-use, climate, and net anthropogenic phosphorus inputs to agricultural/forest (NAPIAF) and residential (NAPIR) systems for the upper Jiaojiang watershed in eastern China. Annual NAPIAF rose by 73% in 1980-1999 followed by a 41% decline in 2000-2011, while NAPIR continuously increased by 122% over the 1980-2011 period. Land-use showed a 63% increase in developed land area (D%) and a 91% increase in use of efficient drainage systems on agricultural land area (AD%) over the study period. Although no significant trends were observed in annual river discharge or precipitation, the annual number of storm events rose by 90% along with a 34% increase in the coefficient of variation of daily rainfall. In response to changes of NAPIAF, NAPIR, land-use and precipitation patterns, riverine TP flux increased 16.0-fold over the 32-year record. Phosphorus export via erosion and leaching was the dominant pathway for P delivery to rivers. An empirical model incorporating annual NAPIAF, NAPIR, precipitation, D%, and AD% was developed (R2=0.96) for apportioning riverine TP sources and predicting annual riverine TP fluxes. The model estimated that NAPIAF, NAPIR and legacy P sources contributed 19-56%, 16-67% and 13-32% of annual riverine TP flux in 1980-2011, respectively. Compared to reduction of NAPIAF, reduction of NAPIR was predicted to have a greater immediate impact on decreasing riverine TP fluxes. Changes in anthropogenic P input sources (NAPIAF vs. NAPIR), land-use, and precipitation patterns as well as the legacy P source can amplify P export from landscapes to rivers and should be considered in developing P management strategies to reduce riverine P fluxes

Reconstructing historical changes in phosphorus inputs to rivers from point and nonpoint sources in a rapidly developing watershed in eastern China, 1980–2010

Quantifying point (PS) and nonpoint source (NPS) phosphorus inputs to rivers is critical for developing effective watershed remediation strategies. This study reconstructed PS and NPS total phosphorus (TP) inputs to the Yongan River in eastern China in 1980-2010 using a load apportionment model (LAM) from paired riverine TP concentrations and river discharge records. Based on the fundamental hydrological differences between PS and NPS pollution, the LAM statistically quantified their individual inputs as a power-law function of river discharge. The LAM-estimated monthly/annual riverine TP loads were in good agreement with results derived from a regression model, Load Estimator (LOADEST). The annual TP load increased from 18.4 to 357.0 Mg yr(-1) between 1980 and 2010. The PS input contributed 7-45% of annual total TP load and increased 23-fold, consistent with a 20-fold increase in flow-adjusted average chloride concentration during the low flow regime (a proxy for wastewater inputs), as well as measured increases in population, poultry, and industrial production. Inferring from observed TP and chloride ratios, as well as total suspended solids (TSS) and river discharge dynamics, temporally retained P load within the river during the low flow regime was estimated to contribute 18-65% of the annual PS input load. NPS inputs consistently dominated the annual riverine TP load (55-93%) and increased 19-fold, consistent with the strong correlation between riverine TP and TSS concentrations, increasing developed land area, improved agricultural drainage systems, and phosphorus accumulation in agricultural soils. Based on our analysis, TP pollution control strategies should be preferentially directed at reductions in NPS loads, especially during summer high-flow periods when the greatest eutrophication risk occurs

Changes in river water temperature between 1980 and 2012 in Yongan watershed, eastern China: Magnitude, drivers and models

Climate warming is expected to have major impacts on river water quality, water column/hyporheic zone biogeochemistry and aquatic ecosystems. A quantitative understanding of spatio-temporal air (Ta) and water (Tw) temperature dynamics is required to guide river management and to facilitate adaptations to climate change. This study determined the magnitude, drivers and models for increasing Tw in three river segments of the Yongan watershed in eastern China. Over the 1980-2012 period, Tw in the watershed increased by 0.029-0.046°Cyr-1 due to a ~0.050°Cyr-1 increase of Ta and changes in local human activities (e.g., increasing developed land and population density and decreasing forest area). A standardized multiple regression model was developed for predicting annual Tw (R2=0.88-0.91) and identifying/partitioning the impact of the principal drivers on increasing Tw:Ta (76±1%), local human activities (14±2%), and water discharge (10±1%). After normalizing water discharge, climate warming and local human activities were estimated to contribute 81-95% and 5-19% of the observed rising Tw, respectively. Models forecast a 0.32-1.76°C increase in Tw by 2050 compared with the 2000-2012 baseline condition based on four future scenarios. Heterogeneity of warming rates existed across seasons and river segments, with the lower flow river and dry season demonstrating a more pronounced response to climate warming and human activities. Rising Tw due to changes in climate, local human activities and hydrology has a considerable potential to aggravate river water quality degradation and coastal water eutrophication in summer. Thus it should be carefully considered in developing watershed management strategies in response to climate change

Influence of Lag Effect, Soil Release, And Climate Change on Watershed Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs and Riverine Export Dynamics

This study demonstrates the importance of the nitrogen-leaching lag effect, soil nitrogen release, and climate change on anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) and riverine total nitrogen (TN) export dynamics using a 30-yr record for the Yongan River watershed in eastern China. Cross-correlation analysis indicated a 7-yr, 5-yr, and 4-yr lag time in riverine TN export in response to changes in NANI, temperature, and drained agricultural land area, respectively. Enhanced by warmer temperature and improved agricultural drainage, the upper 20 cm of agricultural soils released 270 kg N ha(-1) between 1980 and 2009. Climate change also increased the fractional export of NANI to river. An empirical model (R(2) = 0.96) for annual riverine TN flux incorporating these influencing factors estimated 35%, 41%, and 24% of riverine TN flux originated from the soil N pool, NANI, and background N sources, respectively. The model forecasted an increase of 45%, 25%, and 6% and a decrease of 13% in riverine TN flux from 2010 to 2030 under continued development, climate change, status-quo, and tackling scenarios, respectively. The lag effect, soil N release, and climate change delay riverine TN export reductions with respect to decreases in NANI and should be considered in developing and evaluating N management measures